In which, the TBRW? prognostication system, lately so successful, turns its attention to this year's ECAC.
Place Team 1 Vermont 2 Clarkson 3 Cornell 4 St. Lawrence 5 Colgate 6 Harvard 7 Dartmouth 8 Brown 9 Union 10 Princeton 11 RPI 12 Yale
The TBRW? predictions are based on each team's previous year's performance, modified by off-season roster changes. In the past, we ranked teams within the conference and gave them a +1 or -1 offset for several modifying values. This time around, inspired no doubt by our atrocious performance last year, we will stick with the facts, using the raw values of the statistics themselves, rather than artificially dividing them into ranked thirds.
Each team receives a base score reflecting its previous regular season standing -- RS. The number of post-season upset wins or losses PS is then added to this base score.
Finally, added to this score is a function of the following modifiers:
|
Modifier |
Description |
|---|---|
|
Conference winning percentage in 5 seasons previous to past season. | |
|
Second-half improvement, previous regular season. | |
|
Percentage of previous season's goals scored returning for current season. | |
|
Percentage of previous season's defenseman games played returning for current season. | |
|
Percentage of previous season's goaltender minutes played returning for current season. |
The coefficient multiplier for the sum of the modifiers helps balance the effects of roster changes and also generates a final score which signifies the number of points a team should finish with.