Pred

Predicted Conference Finish, 1998-99

The seven statistics that go into the prediction score are now added such that the sum should reflect each team�s league points in the coming season. This requires a little playful mathematics, as described below. For each team, first we compute AvgMod, the average of the five percentage modifiers. The mean of AvgMod is itself used in calculating an adjustment, AdjMod, which, when added to RS and PS produces the predictor of conference points, Pred.

For the hardcore types: 

AvgMod = (5Pct + 1/2 + RetG + RetD + RetM) / 5
AdjMod = 44 * (AvgMod - MEAN[AvgMod])
Pred = AdjMod + RS + PS
In the table below,
MEAN[AvgMod] = .514

   Team        	5Pct	  1/2	 RetG	 RetD	 RetM	AvgMod	AdjMod	RS	PS	Pred
 1 Yale		.382	-.045	.744	 .519	1.000	.520	  0	35	-1	 34
 2 Clarkson	.741	 .182	.638	 .705	 .000	.453	 -3	34	-1	 30
 3 RPI		.545	 .091	.548	 .528	1.000	.542	  1	26	-1	 26
 4 Vermont	.609	 .091	.854	1.000	 .883	.687	  8	18	 0	 26
 5 Harvard	.550	-.045	.750	 .732	1.000	.597	  4	21	 0	 25
 6 St. Lawrence	.464	 .182	.566	1.000	1.000	.642	  6	18	 0	 24
 7 Brown	.477	 .364	.510	 .521	 .627	.500	 -1	24	-1	 22
 8 Princeton	.436	-.091	.712	1.000	 .078	.427	 -4	20	 3	 19
 9 Dartmouth	.309	 .136	.365	 .667	1.000	.495	 -1	17	 0	 16
10 Cornell	.545	-.318	.821	 .836	 .160	.409	 -5	19	 1	 15
11 Colgate	.550	-.500	.560	 .913	 .281	.361	 -7	21	 0	 14
12 Union	.391	 .045	.877	1.000	 .371	.537	  1	11	 0	 12
										

Sum	       5.999	 .092  7.945	9.421	7.400  6.171	  0    264	 0	264
Mean		.500	 .008   .662	 .785	 .617	.514	  0     22	 0	 22