Pred

Predicted Conference Finish (Old Measure)

The seven statistics that go into the prediction score are now added such that the sum should reflect each team�s league points in the coming season. This requires a little playful mathematics, as described below. For each team, first we compute AvgMod, the average of the five percentage modifiers. The mean of AvgMod is itself used in calculating an adjustment, AdjMod, which, when added to RS and PS produces the predictor of conference points, Pred.

For the hardcore types: 

AvgMod = (5Pct + 1/2 + RetG + RetD + RetM) / 5
AdjMod = 44 * (AvgMod - MEAN[AvgMod])
Pred = AdjMod + RS + PS
In the table below,
MEAN[AvgMod] = .539


Team		 5Pct	  1/2	 RetG	 RetD	 RetM  AvgMod  AdjMod	RS	PS     Pred	Team        
Brown		.423	-.136	 .747	1.000	1.000	 .607	 3	15	 0	 18	Brown
Clarkson	.768	 .182	 .744	 .683	1.000	 .675	 6	36	 0	 42	Clarkson
Colgate	.568	 .000	 .780	 .720	 .999	 .613	 3	26	 1	 30	Colgate
Cornell	.555	-.227	 .802	 .834	1.000	 .593	 2	21	 0	 23	Cornell
Dartmouth	.332	 .000	 .578	 .407	1.000	 .463	-3	14	 0	 11	Dartmouth
Harvard	.468	 .364	 .670	 .722	1.000	 .645	 5	18	 0	 23	Harvard
Princeton	.482	-.318	 .487	 .634	 .682	 .393	-6	27	 0	 21	Princeton
RPI		.545	-.273	 .691	 .815	1.000	 .556	 1	28	 0	 29	RPI
SLU		.541	-.045	 .691	1.000	 .066	 .450	-4	33	 0	 29	SLU
Union		.305	-.091	 .837	 .619	 .525	 .439	-4 	 4	 0	  0	Union
Vermont	.564	 .091	 .709	 .851	 .678	 .579	 2	16	 0	 18	Vermont
Yale		.450	 .182	 .791	 .715	 .131	 .454	-4	26	-1	 21	Yale
										
Sum		6.001	-.273	8.527	9.002	9.080   6.468	 0     264	 0	264
Mean		 .500	-.023	 .711	 .750	 .757	 .539	 0	22	 0	 22
Our former ECAC predictor, Pred, has Cornell as a middle of the pack team this coming year: