Never Apologize, Never Explain 2014-15

The predictions use these metrics, described below:

The Metrics

RS

RS is each team's points in the prior ECAC regular season:

	RS
Brown	17
Clarkson	24
Colgate	29
Cornell	26
Dartmouth	16
Harvard	16
Princeton	8
Quinnipiac	28
RPI	21
SLU	18
Union	37
Yale	24

PS

PS is the number of upset (lower seed) advances (+1) or eliminations (-1) in the previous season's ECAC tournament.  The consolation game is ignored.

The upsets in the last season's ECAC tournament were:

• + Dartmouth upset RPI in First Round

	PS
Brown	0
Clarkson	0
Colgate	0
Cornell	0
Dartmouth	+1
Harvard	0
Princeton	0
Quinnipiac	0
RPI	-1
SLU	0
Union	0
Yale	0

Imp

Imp is the difference in points gained in the second half (games 12-22) minus the first half (games 1-11) of the prior ECAC regular season, divided by 2 (and rounded down).  A positive Imp indicates the team had a better second half:

	Pts	2nd ½	1st ½	Diff	Imp
Brown	17	6	11	-5	-2
Clarkson	24	8	16	-8	-4
Colgate	29	14	15	-1	0
Cornell	26	13	13	0	0
Dartmouth	16	12	4	8	+4
Harvard	16	9	7	2	+1
Princeton	8	2	6	-4	-2
Quinnipiac	28	11	17	-6	-3
RPI	21	12	9	3	+1
SLU	18	11	7	4	+2
Union	37	19	18	1	0
Yale	24	13	11	2	+1

WRet

WRet captures how much of last year's players' contribution returns (or has been lost to graduation or early departure).

First the returning strength of three subcomponents is calculated for the team's "significant" players, as defined here:

• RetF: returning % of points of top 6 scoring forwards
• RetD: returning % of points of top 4 scoring defensemen
• RetG: returning % of minutes of all goalies

We then weight these numbers by their position's contribution to the team at full strength (3 forwards, 2 defensemen, and 1 goaltender), and multiply the result by 3 to approximate the dispersion from prior Returning Strength metrics:

WRet = (3*RetF + 2*RetD + RetG)/6

The team breakdowns of  Returning Players are shown below.

All of last year's significant seniors are assumed non-returning, unless otherwise noted.  The seniors from last season returning are:

• (None)

The following significant players with eligibility remaining are not returning:

• + Ryan Haggerty, RPI, Jr, 43 pts, F-1 (i.e., #1 scoring forward)

  + Mike Zalewski, RPI, So, 26 pts, F-4

  + Matt Carey, SLU, Fr, 37 pts, F-2

  + Brian Ferlin, Cornell, Jr, 27 pts, F-1

  + Shayne Gostisbehere, Union, Jr, 34 pts, D-2

Backup Data:

Returning (Y) and Non-Returning (N) players by team by position.  Early departures in italic.

		RetF		RetD		RetG		WRet
	Brown	0.88		0.26		0.66		0.639
	Ret	114		10		1234
	Total	129		38		1880
	1	35	Y	17	N	1234	Y
	2	32	Y	10	Y	646	N
	3	29	Y	6	N
	4	15	N	5	N
	5	10	Y
	6	8	Y
	Clarkson	0.27		1.00		1.00		0.637
	Ret	39		54		2564
	Total	142		54		2564
	1	32	N	17	Y	1402	Y
	2	28	N	14	Y	1043	Y
	3	25	Y	13	Y	119	Y
	4	23	N	10	Y
	5	20	N
	6	14	Y
	Colgate	1.00		1.00		0.76		0.960
	Ret	165		57		1803
	Total	165		57		2369
	1	33	Y	20	Y	1683	Y
	2	30	Y	19	Y	566	N
	3	28	Y	9	Y	120	Y
	4	28	Y	9	Y
	5	26	Y
	6	20	Y
	Cornell	0.62		0.91		0.04		0.621
	Ret	78		40		72
	Total	125		44		1954
	1	27	N	24	Y	1882	N
	2	24	Y	8	Y	72	Y
	3	24	Y	8	Y
	4	20	N	4	N
	5	16	Y
	6	14	Y
	Dartmouth	1.00		1.00		0.87		0.979
	Ret	111		43		1790
	Total	111		43		2055
	1	29	Y	13	Y	1454	Y
	2	21	Y	11	Y	336	Y
	3	19	Y	10	Y	265	N
	4	16	Y	9	Y
	5	13	Y
	6	13	Y
	Harvard	1.00		1.00		0.53		0.922
	Ret	106		28		990
	Total	106		28		1870
	1	22	Y	10	Y	970	Y
	2	20	Y	8	Y	880	N
	3	20	Y	6	Y	20	Y
	4	15	Y	4	Y
	5	15	Y
	6	14	Y
	Princeton	0.53		0.59		0.51		0.549
	Ret	48		16		968
	Total	90		27		1912
	1	21	N	11	N	956	Y
	2	21	N	9	Y	944	N
	3	13	Y	4	Y	12	Y
	4	12	Y	3	Y
	5	12	Y
	6	11	Y
	Quinnipiac	0.50		0.66		1.00		0.637
	Ret	109		43		2435
	Total	218		65		2435
	1	43	Y	22	N	2409	Y
	2	42	N	17	Y	26	Y
	3	38	N	14	Y
	4	38	Y	12	Y
	5	29	N
	6	28	Y
	RPI	0.32		0.59		1.00		0.522
	Ret	53		24		2236
	Total	165		41		2236
	1	43	N	12	Y	2113	Y
	2	30	N	12	Y	103	Y
	3	27	Y	10	N	20	Y
	4	26	N	7	N
	5	26	Y
	6	13	N
	SLU	0.29		0.56		0.18		0.361
	Ret	52		51		423
	Total	181		91		2301
	1	57	N	36	Y	1878	N
	2	37	N	33	N	300	Y
	3	35	N	15	Y	123	Y
	4	18	Y	7	N
	5	17	Y
	6	17	Y
	Union	0.59		0.27		1.00		0.554
	Ret	129		27		2530
	Total	217		100		2530
	1	50	N	39	N	2080	Y
	2	41	Y	34	N	425	Y
	3	38	N	16	Y	25	Y
	4	34	Y	11	Y
	5	31	Y
	6	23	Y
	Yale	0.48		0.72		1.00		0.646
	Ret	63		47		2002
	Total	132		65		2002
	1	37	N	20	Y	1764	Y
	2	32	N	18	N	238	Y
	3	18	Y	16	Y
	4	16	Y	11	Y
	5	16	Y
	6	13	Y

Summary:

	RetF	RetD	RetG	WRet
Brown	.88	.26	.66	.639
Clarkson	.27	1.00	1.00	.637
Colgate	1.00	1.00	.76	.960
Cornell	.62	.91	.04	.621
Dartmouth	1.00	1.00	.87	.979
Harvard	1.00	1.00	.53	.922
Princeton	.53	.59	.51	.549
Quinnipiac	.50	.66	1.00	.637
RPI	.32	.59	1.00	.522
SLU	.29	.56	.18	.361
Union	.59	.27	1.00	.554
Yale	.48	.72	1.00	.646

Avg10

Avg10 measures traditional program strength, by taking the team's mean number of Points over the prior 10 seasons.  This will be used to compute the expected Incoming factor.

Backup Data:

	Brn	Clk	Col	Cor	Drt	Hvd	Prn	Qpc	RPI	SLU	Uni	Yal
2005	20	16	31	38	28	32	14		13	19	17	7
2006	11	20	30	29	30	27	17	17	22	25	22	14
2007	16	30	17	24	27	22	22	24	17	33	15	17
2008	15	33	21	25	15	27	28	22	15	16	25	22
2009	10	20	17	29	24	24	28	21	13	26	20	32
2010	16	11	26	31	17	17	18	22	23	23	28	32
2011	18	19	11	24	26	15	24	19	24	13	36	35
2012	14	22	23	30	19	25	16	23	17	21	32	22
2013	20	19	15	19	22	14	20	37	27	22	24	25
2014	17	24	29	24	16	16	8	28	21	18	37	24
Pts	157	214	220	273	224	219	195	213	192	216	256	230
Avg	15.700	21.400	22.000	27.300	22.400	21.900	19.500	23.667	19.200	21.600	25.600	23.000

Summary:

	Avg10
Brown	15.700
Clarkson	21.400
Colgate	22.000
Cornell	27.300
Dartmouth	22.400
Harvard	21.900
Princeton	19.500
Quinnipiac	23.667
RPI	19.200
SLU	21.600
Union	25.600
Yale	23.000

Putting it All Together

From these independent metrics, we now generate several calculated metrics:

All but the last of these calculated metrics are just convenient conceptual groupings -- the final metric, Nieu, could be calculated directly from the independent metrics.  But we'll sacrifice brevity for clarity of expression (and check our work) by spelling them out in the table below: