Never Apologize, Never Explain 2018-19

This page describes the methodology for this year's TBRW? Predictions.  As always, if you catch an error please contact the humble author.

RS

RS is each team's points in the prior ECAC regular season:

	RS
Brown	15
Clarkson	29
Colgate	23
Cornell	36
Dartmouth	23
Harvard	25
Princeton	22
Quinnipiac	20
RPI	10
SLU	7
Union	33
Yale	21

PS

PS is the number of upset (lower seed) advances (+1) or eliminations (-1) in the previous season's ECAC tournament.  The consolation game is ignored.

The upsets in the last season's ECAC tournament were:

• #9 Quinnipiac upset #8 Yale
• #7 Princeton upset #2 Union
• #7 Princeton upset #1 Cornell
• #7 Princeton upset #3 Clarkson

	PS
Brown	0
Clarkson	-1
Colgate	0
Cornell	-1
Dartmouth	0
Harvard	0
Princeton	+3
Quinnipiac	+1
RPI	0
SLU	0
Union	-1
Yale	-1

Imp

Imp is the difference in points gained in the second half (games 12-22) minus the first half (games 1-11) of the prior ECAC regular season, divided by 2, rounded down.  A positive Imp indicates the team had a better second half:

	Pts	2nd ½	1st ½	Diff	Imp
Brown	15	7	8	1	0
Clarkson	29	9	20	-11	-5
Colgate	23	10	13	-3	-1
Cornell	36	17	19	-2	-1
Dartmouth	23	14	9	5	2
Harvard	25	10	15	-5	-2
Princeton	22	15	7	8	4
Quinnipiac	20	11	9	2	1
RPI	10	4	6	-2	-1
SLU	7	6	1	5	2
Union	33	19	14	5	2
Yale	21	12	9	3	1

RP%: Returning Points Percentage

The returning points ratio is simply the percentage of prior years points not lost to graduation or early departure.  A player who left during the prior year is counted as a departure.

The following non-seniors with at least 1 point and/or goalies are known to be not returning:

• + Sheldon Rempal, Clarkson, 46 pts
  + Ryan Donato, Harvard, 43
  + Josh Dickinson, Clarkson, 26
  + Anthony Angello, Cornell, 26
  + Colton Point, Colgate, Goalie

  The Purge, RPI, 52 points:

  + Evan Tironese, RPI, 15 pts
  + Emil Ohrvall, RPI, 11
  + Troy York, RPI, 8
  + Jon Richards, RPI, 5
  + Jesper Ohrvall, RPI, 4
  + Max Reisinger, RPI, 4
  + Owen Stout, RPI, 4
  + Charlie Manley, RPI, 1
  + Kyle St. Denis, RPI, Goalie

  
  

 RP% = Points Returning / Total Points from Prior Season

RA: Returning Awardees

Returning Awardees is the net return (or loss) of ECAC First Team, POTY, and ROTY awards.  The potential repetition of a player (e.g., First Team and POTY) is intentional to allow for the impact of unusually talented players.

The prior ECAC awardees were:

Award	Name	Team	Status
ECAC F	Donato	Harvard	Depart
ECAC F	Rempal	Clarkson	Depart
ECAC F	Verroneau	Princeton	Return
ECAC D	Summers	Clarkson	Depart
ECAC D	Fox	Harvard	Return
ECAC G	Galajda	Cornell	Return
POTY	Donato	Harvard	Depart
ROTY	Galajda	Cornell	Return

The calculation: add one point for each returning awardee while subtracting one for each departure:

	Return	Depart	RA
Brown	0	0	0
Clarkson	0	2	-2
Colgate	0	0	0
Cornell	2	0	+2
Dartmouth	0	0	0
Harvard	1	2	-1
Princeton	1	0	+1
Quinnipiac	0	0	0
RPI	0	0	0
SLU	0	0	0
Union	0	0	0
Yale	0	0	0

Avg10

Avg10 measures traditional program strength, by taking the team's mean number of Points over the prior 10 seasons.

	Brn	Clk	Cgt	Cor	Drt	Hvd	Prn	Qpc	RPI	SLU	Uni	Yal
2009	10	20	17	29	24	24	28	21	13	26	20	32
2010	16	11	26	31	17	17	18	22	23	23	28	32
2011	18	19	11	24	26	15	24	19	24	13	36	35
2012	14	22	23	30	19	25	16	23	17	21	32	22
2013	20	19	15	19	22	14	20	37	27	22	24	25
2014	17	24	29	24	16	16	8	28	21	18	37	24
2015	13	19	26	22	26	25	6	35	18	29	17	28
2016	12	23	14	22	22	28	9	37	23	25	18	31
2017	7	23	15	31	16	34	19	27	12	28	34	18
2018	15	29	23	36	23	25	22	20	10	7	33	21
Pts	142	209	199	268	211	223	170	269	188	212	279	268
Avg10	14.2	20.9	19.9	26.8	21.1	22.3	17.0	26.9	18.8	21.2	27.9	26.8

Summary:

	Avg10
Brown	14.2
Clarkson	20.9
Colgate	19.9
Cornell	26.8
Dartmouth	21.1
Harvard	22.3
Princeton	17.0
Quinnipiac	26.9
RPI	18.8
SLU	21.2
Union	27.9
Yale	26.8

Putting it All Together

Now we put everything together to predict the final standings.  This is a function of both the strength of returning players and an estimate of the strength of the new players.

The Past

Firsty, we want a measure of total returning strength, both the quality of the prior roster and its quantity -- the percentage of that roster returning.

Prior, the quality is the sum of RS, PS, Imp, and RA.

RP%,  the quantity, is simply carried down from above.

Past, the relative measure of returning strength, is the product of Prior and RP%.

The Future

Secondly,  we want to make the same two estimates for the incoming player: their quality and quantity.

Avg10 above, carried down.

Inc%, the estimate of quantity, is simply 1 - RP%.

Fut, the relative estimate of incoming strength, is the product of Avg10 and Inc%.

Conclusion

All that's left to do is add Past and Fut together (Net), normalize so teams will have a mean of 22 points (Norm = 22 - mean of Net), yielding predicted RS (Nieu), rounded to Pts and the ECAC standing (Pred).

Total: