Never
Apologize, Never Explain, 2002-03Never
Apologize, Never Explain, 2002-03So, here's how we do it. Follow the links for detailed computations.
Regular season performance in previous season. |
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Post-season performance in previous season. |
Standing in total conference record in the three previous seasons. |
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Second-half improvement, previous regular season. |
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Returning % of Leading Forwards points. |
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Returning % of Leading Defensemen points. |
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Returning % of Leading Goaltenders wins. |
Pred is derived by adding all the base values and modifiers together:
FPred, the basis for our final predictor, is derived by regressing Pred 25% back towards their conference standing of the previous ten seasons:Pred = (RS + PS) + (Prv3 + 1/2 + RetF + RetD + RetG)
FPred = 3*Pred + Prv10
Sum of all base values and modifiers. |
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Standing in total conference record in the ten previous seasons. |
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Final predictor and basis for the TBRW? Prediction. |
Our final prediction is simply the ranking of FPred.
The modifiers are computed below.
RS is based on regular season standing in 2001-02. RS = (12 - Standing).
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Standing | RS |
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Brown |
8 | 4 |
| Clarkson | 2 | 10 |
| Colgate | 7 | 5 |
| Cornell | 1 | 11 |
| Dartmouth | 4 | 8 |
| Harvard | 3 | 9 |
| Princeton | 6 | 6 |
| RPI | 5 | 7 |
| St. Lawrence | 9 | 3 |
| Union | 11 | 1 |
| Vermont | 12 | 0 |
| Yale | 10 | 2 |
The number of post-season upset series wins (+1) and losses (-1) in the 2001-02 playoffs. The consolation game is not counted.
Last year's upsets:
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|
PS |
|
Brown |
0 |
| Clarkson | -1 |
| Colgate | 0 |
| Cornell | -1 |
| Dartmouth | -1 |
| Harvard | +2 |
| Princeton | 0 |
| RPI | +1 |
| St. Lawrence | 0 |
| Union | 0 |
| Vermont | 0 |
| Yale | 0 |
The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%) in the total conference winning percentage (Pct) for the seasons 1999-2000, 2000-01, and 2001-02 -- the three seasons in which the three returning classes have performed.
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Pct | Prv3 |
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Brown |
.308 | -1 |
| Clarkson | .625 | +1 |
| Colgate | .539 | +1 |
| Cornell | .641 | +1 |
| Dartmouth | .508 | 0 |
| Harvard | .531 | 0 |
| Princeton | .492 | 0 |
| RPI | .538 | 0 |
| St. Lawrence | .641 | +1 |
| Union | .385 | 0 |
| Vermont | .324 | -1 |
| Yale | .438 | -1 |
The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%) in the amount of improvement in record from the first 11 conference games to the last 11 conference games, last season (2001-02).
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Rec, G 12-22 | Rec, G 1-11 | Pts Diff | 1/2 |
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Brown |
7-4-0 | 3-6-2 | +6 | +1 |
| Clarkson | 6-4-1 | 5-2-4 | -1 | 0 |
| Colgate | 5-4-2 | 5-6-0 | +2 | 0 |
| Cornell | 9-1-1 | 8-2-1 | +2 | 0 |
| Dartmouth | 3-4-3 | 5-4-2 | -3 | -1 |
| Harvard | 3-7-1 | 7-2-2 | -9 | -1 |
| Princeton | 5-4-2 | 5-6-0 | +2 | 0 |
| RPI | 7-3-1 | 3-6-2 | +7 | +1 |
| St. Lawrence | 5-4-2 | 4-7-0 | +4 | +1 |
| Union | 4-6-1 | 4-5-2 | -1 | 0 |
| Vermont | 0-11-0 | 3-7-1 | -7 | -1 |
| Yale | 4-7-0 | 5-4-2 | -4 | -1 |
The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%) in returning % of Leading Forwards points. Team-by-team breakdown here.
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|
RetF% | RetF |
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Brown |
100 | +1 |
| Clarkson | 52 | -1 |
| Colgate | 83 | +1 |
| Cornell | 74 | 0 |
| Dartmouth | 34 | -1 |
| Harvard | 100 | +1 |
| Princeton | 51 | -1 |
| RPI | 33 | -1 |
| St. Lawrence | 56 | 0 |
| Union | 69 | 0 |
| Vermont | 71 | 0 |
| Yale | 79 | +1 |
The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%) in returning % of Leading Defensemen points. Team-by-team breakdown here.
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|
RetD% | RetD |
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Brown |
89 | 0 |
| Clarkson | 40 | -1 |
| Colgate | 76 | 0 |
| Cornell | 100 | +1 |
| Dartmouth | 100 | +1 |
| Harvard | 70 | 0 |
| Princeton | 58 | 0 |
| RPI | 47 | -1 |
| St. Lawrence | 54 | -1 |
| Union | 54 | -1 |
| Vermont | 100 | +1 |
| Yale | 100 | +1 |
The third (+1 top 33%, 0 middle 33%, -1 bottom 33%) in returning % of Leading Goaltenders wins. Team-by-team breakdown here.
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|
RetG% | RetG |
|
Brown |
79 | 0 |
| Clarkson | 100 | +1 |
| Colgate | 77 | 0 |
| Cornell | 44 | 0 |
| Dartmouth | 100 | +1 |
| Harvard | 100 | +1 |
| Princeton | 0 | -1 |
| RPI | 100 | +1 |
| St. Lawrence | 100 | +1 |
| Union | 0 | -1 |
| Vermont | 100 | +1 |
| Yale | 10 | -1 |
Pred = (RS + PS) + (Prv3 + 1/2 + RetF + RetD + RetG)
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RS | PS | Prv3 | 1/2 | RetF | RetD | RetG | Pred | |
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Brown |
4 | 0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | |
| Clarkson | 10 | -1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 9 | |
| Colgate | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | |
| Cornell | 11 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12 | |
| Dartmouth | 8 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 7 | |
| Harvard | 9 | +2 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | 12 | |
| Princeton | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 4 | |
| RPI | 7 | +1 | 0 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | 8 | |
| St. Lawrence | 3 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 5 | |
| Union | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | |
| Vermont | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 | +1 | +1 | 0 | |
| Yale | 2 | 0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -1 | 1 |
Prv10 is based on the Standing in the total conference winning percentage (Pct) for the previous 10 seasons, 1992-93 through 2001-02. Prv10 = (12 - Standing).
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Pct | Standing | Prv10 |
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Brown |
.429 | 10 | 2 |
| Clarkson | .704 | 1 | 11 |
| Colgate | .537 | 5(t) | 6.5 |
| Cornell | .537 | 5(t) | 6.5 |
| Dartmouth | .379 | 11 | 1 |
| Harvard | .555 | 4 | 8 |
| Princeton | .461 | 8 | 4 |
| RPI | .568 | 2 | 10 |
| St. Lawrence | .557 | 3 | 9 |
| Union | .333 | 12 | 0 |
| Vermont | .498 | 7 | 5 |
| Yale | .443 | 9 | 3 |
FPred = (3 * Pred + Prv10). The TBRW? Prediction is the Ranking of FPred.
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Pred | 3*Pred | Prv10 | FPred | Ranking | ||
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Brown |
5 | 15 | 2 | 17 | 8 | ||
| Clarkson | 9 | 27 | 11 | 38 | 3 | ||
| Colgate | 7 | 21 | 6.5 | 27.5 | 5 | ||
| Cornell | 12 | 36 | 6.5 | 42.5 | 2 | ||
| Dartmouth | 7 | 21 | 1 | 22 | 7 | ||
| Harvard | 12 | 36 | 8 | 44 | 1 | ||
| Princeton | 4 | 12 | 4 | 16 | 9 | ||
| RPI | 8 | 24 | 10 | 34 | 4 | ||
| St. Lawrence | 5 | 15 | 9 | 24 | 6 | ||
| Union | -1 | -3 | 0 | -3 | 12 | ||
| Vermont | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 11 | ||
| Yale | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 |