Never Apologize, Never Explain 2019-20

This page describes the methodology for this year's TBRW? Predictions.  As always, if you catch an error please contact the humble author.

RS

RS is each team's points in the prior ECAC regular season:

	RS
Brown	21
Clarkson	28
Colgate	17
Cornell	30
Dartmouth	23
Harvard	28
Princeton	18
Quinnipiac	30
RPI	16
SLU	8
Union	22
Yale	23

PS

PS is the number of upset (lower seed) advances (+1) or eliminations (-1) in the previous season's ECAC tournament.  The consolation game is ignored.

The upsets in the last season's ECAC tournament were:

• #8 Brown upset #1 Quinnipiac
• #3 Clarkson upset #2 Cornell

	PS
Brown	+1
Clarkson	+1
Colgate	0
Cornell	-1
Dartmouth	0
Harvard	0
Princeton	0
Quinnipiac	-1
RPI	0
SLU	0
Union	0
Yale	0

Imp

Imp is the difference in points gained in the second half (games 12-22) minus the first half (games 1-11) of the prior ECAC regular season, divided by 2, rounded down.  A positive Imp indicates the team had a better second half:

	Pts	2nd ½	1st ½	Diff	Imp
Brown	21	12	9	+3	+1
Clarkson	28	14	14	0	0
Colgate	17	9	8	+1	0
Cornell	30	13	17	-4	-2
Dartmouth	23	10	13	-3	-1
Harvard	28	18	10	+8	+4
Princeton	18	9	9	0	0
Quinnipiac	30	15	15	0	0
RPI	16	8	8	0	0
SLU	8	5	3	+2	+1
Union	22	11	11	0	0
Yale	23	8	15	-7	-3

RP%: Returning Points Percentage

The returning points ratio is the percentage of prior year's points not lost to graduation or early departure.  A player who left during the prior year is counted as a departure. The following non-seniors are known not to be returning:

RP% = Points Returning / Total Points from Prior Season

Backup data: here

RA: Returning Awardees

Returning Awardees is the net return (or loss) of ECAC First Team, POTY, and ROTY awards.  The potential repetition of a player (e.g., First Team and POTY) is intentional to allow for the impact of unusually talented players.

The prior ECAC awardees were:

Award	Name	Team	Status
ECAC F	Barron	Cornell	Return
ECAC F	Sturm	Clarkson	Depart
ECAC F	Snively	Yale	Depart
ECAC F	Kuffner	Princeton	Depart
ECAC D	Fox	Harvard	Depart
ECAC D	Priskie	Quinnipiac	Depart
ECAC G	Shortridge	Quinnipiac	Depart
POTY	Fox	Harvard	Depart
ROTY	Dornbach	Harvard	Return

The calculation: add one point for each returning awardee while subtracting one for each departure:

	Return	Depart	RA
Brown	0	0	0
Clarkson	0	1	-1
Colgate	0	0	0
Cornell	1	0	+1
Dartmouth	0	0	0
Harvard	1	2	-1
Princeton	0	1	-1
Quinnipiac	0	2	-2
RPI	0	0	0
SLU	0	0	0
Union	0	0	0
Yale	0	1	-1

Avg10

Avg10 measures traditional program strength, by taking the team's mean number of Points over the prior 10 seasons.

	Brn	Clk	Cgt	Cor	Drt	Hvd	Prn	Qpc	RPI	SLU	Uni	Yal
2010	16	11	26	31	17	17	18	22	23	23	28	32
2011	18	19	11	24	26	15	24	19	24	13	36	35
2012	14	22	23	30	19	25	16	23	17	21	32	22
2013	20	19	15	19	22	14	20	37	27	22	24	25
2014	17	24	29	24	16	16	8	28	21	18	37	24
2015	13	19	26	22	26	25	6	35	18	29	17	28
2016	12	23	14	22	22	28	9	37	23	25	18	31
2017	7	23	15	31	16	34	19	27	12	28	34	18
2018	15	29	23	36	23	25	22	20	10	7	33	21
2019	21	28	17	30	23	28	18	30	16	8	22	23
Pts	153	217	199	269	210	227	160	278	191	194	281	259
Avg10	15.3	21.7	19.9	26.9	21.0	22.7	16.0	27.8	19.1	19.4	28.1	25.9

Summary:

	Avg10
Brown	15.3
Clarkson	21.7
Colgate	19.9
Cornell	26.9
Dartmouth	21.0
Harvard	22.7
Princeton	16.0
Quinnipiac	27.8
RPI	19.1
SLU	19.4
Union	28.1
Yale	25.9

Putting it All Together

Now we put everything together to predict the final standings.  This is a function of both the strength of returning players and an estimate of the strength of the new players.

The Past

Firstly, we want a measure of total returning strength, both the quality of the prior roster and its quantity -- the percentage of that roster returning.

Prior, the quality, is the sum of RS, PS, Imp, and RA.

RP%,  the quantity, is simply carried down from above.

Past, the relative measure of returning strength, is the product of Prior and RP%.

The Future

Secondly, we want to make the same two estimates for the incoming players: their quality and quantity.

Avg10 above, carried down.

Inc%, the estimate of quantity, is simply 1 - RP%.

Fut, the relative estimate of incoming strength, is the product of Avg10 and Inc%.

Conclusion

All that's left to do is add Past and Fut together (Net), normalize so teams will have a mean of 22 points (Norm = 22 - mean of Net), yielding predicted RS (Nieu), rounded to Pts and the ECAC standing (Pred).

Total: