Never Apologize, Never Explain 2022-23

This page describes the methodology for this year's TBRW? Predictions.  As always, if you catch an error please contact me.

RS

RS is each team's points in the prior ECAC regular season:

	RS
Brown	16
Clarkson	32
Colgate	22
Cornell	28
Dartmouth	12
Harvard	30
Princeton	15
Quinnipiac	35
RPI	20
SLU	19
Union	20
Yale	15

PS

PS is the number of upset (lower seed) advances (+1) or eliminations (-1) in the previous season's ECAC tournament.  The consolation game is ignored.

The upsets in the last season's ECAC tournament were:

• #5 Colgate upset #4 Cornell
• #3 Harvard upset #2 Clarkson
• #3 Harvard upset #1 Quinnipiac

	PS
Brown	0
Clarkson	-1
Colgate	+1
Cornell	-1
Dartmouth	0
Harvard	+2
Princeton	0
Quinnipiac	-1
RPI	0
SLU	0
Union	0
Yale	0

Imp

Imp is the difference in points gained in the second half (games 12-22) minus the first half (games 1-11) of the prior ECAC regular season, divided by 2, rounded down.  A positive Imp indicates the team had a better second half:

	Pts	2nd ½	1st ½	Diff	Imp
Brown	16	8	8	0	0
Clarkson	32	17	15	+2	+1
Colgate	22	14	8	+6	+3
Cornell	28	11	17	-6	-3
Dartmouth	12	7	5	2	+1
Harvard	30	15	15	0	0
Princeton	15	6	9	-3	-1
Quinnipiac	35	16	19	-3	-1
RPI	20	10	10	0	0
SLU	19	11	8	+3	+1
Union	20	11	9	+2	+1
Yale	15	8	7	+1	0

RP%: Returning Points Percentage

The returning points ratio is the percentage of prior year's points not lost to graduation or early departure.  A player who left during the prior year is counted as a departure.

The following are 2022 non-seniors who are not returning to their 2022 team, with their points:

The following are 2022 seniors returning, and 2023 players transferring in from other programs:

RP% = Points Returning / Total Points from Prior Season

Backup data: here

RA: Returning Awardees

Returning Awardees is the net return (or loss) of ECAC First Team, POTY, and ROTY awards.  The potential repetition of a player (e.g., First Team and POTY) is intentional to allow for the impact of unusually talented players.

The prior ECAC awardees were:

Award	Name	Team	Status
ECAC F	Abbruzzese	Harvard	-1
ECAC F	Gosselin	Clarkson	+1
ECAC F	Campbell	Clarkson	+1
ECAC D	Malinski	Cornell	+1
ECAC D	Metsa	Quinnipiac	+1
ECAC G	Perets	Quinnipiac	+1
POTY	Perets	Quinnipiac	+1
DF	Teskos	Clarkson	-1
DD	Metsa	Quinnipiac	+1
ROTY	Laferriere	Harvard	+1

The calculation: add one point for each returning awardee while subtracting one for each departure:

	Return	Depart	RA
Brown	0	0	0
Clarkson	2	1	+1
Colgate	0	0	0
Cornell	1	0	+1
Dartmouth	0	0	0
Harvard	1	1	0
Princeton	0	0	0
Quinnipiac	4	0	+4
RPI	0	0	0
SLU	0	0	0
Union	0	0	0
Yale	0	1	-1

Avg10

Avg10 measures traditional program strength, by taking the team's mean number of Points over the prior 10 seasons.

	Brn	Clk	Cgt	Cor	Drt	Hvd	Prn	Qpc	RPI	SLU	Uni	Yal
2012	14	22	23	30	19	25	16	23	17	21	32	22
2013	20	19	15	19	22	14	20	37	27	22	24	25
2014	17	24	29	24	16	16	8	28	21	18	37	24
2015	13	19	26	22	26	25	6	35	18	29	17	28
2016	12	23	14	22	22	28	9	37	23	25	18	31
2017	7	23	15	31	16	34	19	27	12	28	34	18
2018	15	29	23	36	23	25	22	20	10	7	33	21
2019	21	28	17	30	23	28	18	30	16	8	22	23
2020	18	33	21	38	22	27	8	30	27	6	12	22
2022	16	32	22	28	12	30	15	35	20	19	20	15
Pts	153	252	205	280	201	252	141	302	191	183	249	229
Avg10	15.3	25.2	20.5	28.0	20.1	25.2	14.1	30.2	19.1	18.3	24.9	22.9

Summary:

	Avg10
Brown	15.3
Clarkson	21.7
Colgate	19.9
Cornell	26.9
Dartmouth	21.0
Harvard	22.7
Princeton	16.0
Quinnipiac	27.8
RPI	19.1
SLU	19.4
Union	28.1
Yale	25.9

Putting it All Together

Now we put everything together to predict the final standings.  This is a function of both the strength of returning players and an estimate of the strength of the new players.

The Past

Firstly, we want a measure of total returning strength, both the quality of the prior roster and its quantity -- the percentage of that roster returning.

Prior, the quality, is the sum of RS, PS, Imp, and RA.

RP%,  the quantity, is simply carried down from above.

Past, the relative measure of returning strength, is the product of Prior and RP%.

The Future

Secondly, we want to make the same two estimates for the incoming players: their quality and quantity.

Avg10 above, carried down.

Inc%, the estimate of quantity, is simply 1 - RP%.

Fut, the relative estimate of incoming strength, is the product of Avg10 and Inc%.

Conclusion

All that's left to do is add Past and Fut together (Net), normalize so teams will have a mean of 22 points (Norm = 22 - mean of Net), yielding predicted RS (Nieu), rounded to Pts and the ECAC standing (Pred).

Total: