Never Apologize, Never Explain, 2001-02

So, here's how we do it.  Follow the links for detailed computations.

Base Values

First we take base values directly computed from last year's team performance:

RS

 Regular season performance in previous season.

PS

 Post-season performance in previous season.

Modifiers

Factored into these base values is a function of the following modifiers:

Prev3

Standing in total conference record in the three previous seasons.

1/2

Second-half improvement, previous regular season.

RetF

Returning % of Leading Forwards points.

RetD

Returning % of Leading Defensemen points.

RetG

Returning % of Leading Goaltenders wins.

Predictors

Pred is derived by adding all the base values and modifiers together:

Pred = (RS + PS) + (Prev3 + 1/2 + RetF + RetD + RetG)
FPred, the basis for our final predictor, is derived by regressing Pred 25% back towards their conference standing of the previous ten seasons: 
FPred = 3*Pred + Prev10

Pred

 Sum of all base values and modifiers.

Prev10

 Standing in total conference record in the ten previous seasons.

FPred

 Final predictor and basis for the TBRW? Prediction.

Our final prediction is simply the ranking of FPred.

The modifiers are computer below.

RS

RS is based on regular season standing in 2000-01.  RS = (12 - Standing).

 

 

Standing RS

Brown

 12 0
Clarkson 1 11
Colgate 11 1
Cornell 4 8
Dartmouth 5 7
Harvard 3 9
Princeton 7 5
RPI 6 6
St. Lawrence 2 10
Union 9 3
Vermont 10 2
Yale 8 4

 

PS

The number of post-season upset series wins (+1) and losses (-1) in the 2001-02 playoffs.  The consolation game is not counted.

Last year's upsets:

 

 

PS

Brown

 0
Clarkson -1
Colgate 0
Cornell +1
Dartmouth 0
Harvard -1
Princeton 0
RPI 0
St. Lawrence 0
Union 0
Vermont +1
Yale 0

 

Prev3

Standing in overall conference record for the season 1998-99, 1999-2000, and 2000-01 -- the three seasons in which the three returning classes have performed.

 

W L T +/- Prev3

Brown

 11 43 11 -32 -1
Clarkson 42 17 5 +25 +1
Colgate 34 25 5 +9 +1
Cornell 30 27 7 +3 0
Dartmouth 24 32 9 -8 -1
Harvard 29 30 6 -1 0
Princeton 30 26 9 +4 0
RPI 35 25 5 +10 +1
St. Lawrence 44 13 7 +31 +1
Union 15 45 5 -30 -1
Vermont 18 27 6 -9 -1
Yale 27 29 9 -2 0

 

1/2

 

1st 11 GP Pts 2nd 11 GP Pts Diff 1/2

Brown

 4 4 0 0
Clarkson 14 18 +4 +1
Colgate 7 10 +3 +1
Cornell 14 11 -3 -1
Dartmouth 12 12 0 0
Harvard 15 11 -4 -1
Princeton 10 12 +2 0
RPI 13 11 -2 0
St. Lawrence 15 14 -1 0
Union 7 11 +4 +1
Vermont 11 7 -4 -1
Yale 10 11 +1 0

 

RetF

Returning % of Leading Forwards points.  Team-by-team breakdown here.

 

RetF% RetF

Brown

 36 -1
Clarkson 78 0
Colgate 44 -1
Cornell 95 +1
Dartmouth 90 +1
Harvard 66 0
Princeton 42 -1
RPI 100 +1
St. Lawrence 43 -1
Union 64 0
Vermont 61 0
Yale 52 0

 

RetD

Returning % of Leading Defensemen points.  Team-by-team breakdown here.

 

RetD% RetD

Brown

 88 0
Clarkson 63 0
Colgate 31 -1
Cornell 77 0
Dartmouth 87 +1
Harvard 100 +1
Princeton 100 +1
RPI 100 +1
St. Lawrence 24 -1
Union 81 0
Vermont 10 -1
Yale 74 0

 

RetG

Returning % of Leading Goaltenders wins.  Team-by-team breakdown here.

 

RetG% RetG

Brown

 100 0
Clarkson 100 0
Colgate 100 0
Cornell 87 0
Dartmouth 100 0
Harvard 6 -1
Princeton 100 0
RPI 100 0
St. Lawrence 0 -1
Union 100 0
Vermont 31 -1
Yale 100 0

 

Pred

Pred = (RS + PS) + (Prev3 + 1/2 + RetF + RetD + RetG)

 

RS PS Prev3 1/2 RetF RetD RetG   Pred

Brown

 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0   -2
Clarkson 11 -1 +1 +1 0 0 0   12
Colgate 1 0 +1 +1 -1 -1 0   1
Cornell 8 +1 0 -1 +1 0 0   9
Dartmouth 7 0 -1 0 +1 +1 0   8
Harvard 9 -1 0 -1 0 +1 -1   7
Princeton 5 0 0 0 -1 +1 0   5
RPI 6 0 +1 0 +1 +1 0   9
St. Lawrence 10 0 +1 0 -1 -1 -1   8
Union 3 0 -1 +1 0 0 0   3
Vermont 2 +1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1   -1
Yale 4 0 0 0 0 0 0   4

 

Prev10

Prev10 is based on standing in overall conference record for the ten seasons from 1991-92 through 2000-01.  Prev10 = (12 - Standing).

 

W L T +/- Standing Prev10

Brown

 79 108 32 -29 10 2
Clarkson 145 52 21 +93 1 11
Colgate 108 92 18 +16 5 7
Cornell 97 93 28 +4 7 5
Dartmouth 65 133 21 -68 11 1
Harvard 114 81 24 +33 3 9
Princeton 84 104 31 -20 9 3
RPI 108 85 26 +23 4 8
St. Lawrence 117 81 20 +36 2 10
Union 55 142 22 -87 12 0
Vermont 96 81 28 +15 6 6
Yale 88 104 27 -16 8 4

 

FPred

FPred = (3 * Pred + Prev10).  The TBRW? Prediction is the Ranking of the teams based on FPred.

 

Pred Prev10 FPred   Ranking

Brown

 -2 2 -4   12
Clarkson 12 11 47   1
Colgate 1 7 10   9
Cornell 9 5 32   4
Dartmouth 8 1 25   6
Harvard 7 9 30   5
Princeton 5 3 18   7
RPI 9 8 35   2
St. Lawrence 8 10 34   3
Union 3 0 9   10
Vermont -1 6 3   11
Yale 4 4 16   8